Hi John. I went through your interesting scenario and thought it made a lot of sense other than I was bothered that the husband #1 of Ann Kneale, John Kelly, was consistently 2 years older than he should have been to be Robert Kelly's brother, ie., born 1814-15 instead of late 1816. Averil's note takes care of that and now we know these two Kelly's aren't brothers. But aside from that, it looks very plausible. So, I'd say your house of cards hasn't fallen down, it just had one wrong card.

There were a couple of IGI 1814 Lonan baptisms for a John Kelly, one of which is likely to be the John we're looking for:
John KELLY s of Thomas KELLY & Isabella MOORE 10 Jul 1814 (m 16 Nov 1811 Lonan)
John KELLY s of Philip KELLY & Judith KENNISH (m 25 Jan 1812 Lonan, Philip KELLY & Joney KINUISH)

The first child was named Thomas, which favours #1.
The surname Kinnish in #2 is the same as Robert Kelly's mother. IGI says Joney KINNISH was bp 8 Feb 1784 Lonan, d of Nicholas KINNISH. On my db I have Margaret KINNISH (Robert Kelly's mother) as bp 11 Jul 1784 Lonan, d of Nicholas KINNISH. But that's not on the IGI, so I don't know where I got that from (bad sourcing on my part). Those dates are only 5 months apart. But if it's all true, then John Kelly & Robert Kelly were cousins. So, that would make the wrong card in your house the same suit, just the wrong colour (ohoh, this metaphor is getting stretched).

Eric